Posted on September 30th, 2025.

Growth doesn’t follow a straight path. It arcs. And for most IT services firms, that arc turns before anyone calls it what it is: decline.

Charles Handy’s Sigmoid Curve maps the predictable rise and fall of everything that scales—organizations, business models, product offerings, even leadership styles. Each curve begins with investment and uncertainty. Then momentum builds. Systems form. Margins stabilize. But nothing stays efficient forever. What used to work starts working less. What was once differentiating becomes baseline. That’s the quiet turn.

By the time you feel urgency, the curve has already shifted. That’s the trap. Most leaders try to squeeze more value from a system that’s already peaked, hoping volume or intensity will compensate for erosion. What they delay becomes a larger disruption later.

Strategic leadership plays a different game. It doesn’t resist the curve. It runs ahead of it.

Handy’s core insight: the second curve must begin before the first one ends. Before results sag. Before frustration surfaces. Before the team starts asking if this is all there is.

That doesn’t mean burning down what works. It means:

• Testing what could come next while your current engine still runs
• Rethinking structure, positioning, or offerings while you still have leverage
• Designing from foresight, not fire drills

You don’t need to pivot the entire org overnight. But you do need a second-curve mindset:

• Where is our current curve in its lifecycle? (Be honest.)
• Which model, team, or system is quietly past peak?
• What’s one move we could make now to test the future—before we’re forced to?

I’ve seen second curves in all forms:

• An MSP shifting from ticket-based support to productized services
• A SaaS firm spinning out a vertical-specific version of their platform
• A CIO moving away from hybrid everything toward cloud-native + automation-first
• A services CEO transitioning from founder-led selling to a fractional GTM motion

The common thread isn’t timing. It’s design. These leaders moved while they still had control.

If you wait for client churn, margin compression, or staff turnover to signal it’s time, the curve has already claimed your options. Don’t let that happen.

Strategic growth requires altitude. The ability to see the arc. And the nerve to start climbing again—before the ground disappears.

Call to Action: Curious where you sit on the curve—or what your next one could look like? Schedule some time with me!

JP Van Steerteghem

Call me at +1-617-548-3863

or email me at [email protected]

or schedule some time https://calendly.com/jvansteerteghem